American Scientist publishes paper on plummeting COVID cases in India

Professor Yaneer Bar-Yam. Photo: New England Complex Systems institute –

Scientist Yaneer Bar-Yam, professor at the New England Complex Systems Institute, wrote a paper on the reasons behind the mysteriously lower rate of the spread Covid-19 cases and fatality rates in India. He credits the government for being able to identify and leverage its strengths to limit the spread of the infection.

According to a report, Bar-Yam, a specialist in quantitative analysis of pandemics, said underlying factors such as previous successful response efforts in pandemics, less urbanization that limits travel and rates of community transmission, limited travel and localized tourism were all important in mitigating the impact of Covid-19.

India has been recording a steady decline in the number of daily new deaths since October 1, 2020, while the national recovery rates amongst the highest in the world, the Union Health Ministry said on Sunday, according to

“Since 1st October 2020, the nation has seen an unabated decline in Case Fatality Rate. The Case Fatality Rate today stands below 1.5 (1.43%). India’s Case Fatality Rate is one of the lowest in the world,” it said.

In September last year, India was confirming nearly 100k cases a day, but that figure has dropped to approximately 12,000, says Bar- Yam.

Bar- Yam believes that the Indian government’s swift decision to restrict and regulate public movement in the beginning of the pandemic was equally essential in limiting the impact of the virus.

Highlighting steps taken by the government, Bar-Yam said that in particular decisions to impose severe restrictions on travel, stop gatherings, targeted localized lockdowns, school closures, had proven effective in controlling the outbreak. Other major steps like effective public communication, improvements in case identification, rapid ramping of industrial production of masks and other personal protective equipment (PPE) and testing capacity, have also contributed, he added.

In the paper published on his website, Bar- Yam lists the major government actions because of which the country has effectively flattened the curve.



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