Vance to visit an India that welcomes closer ties with Trump

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NEW DELHI – Vice President JD Vance and his wife, Usha, are set to arrive in New Delhi on Monday as U.S.-India relations enjoy a period of relative calm.

The Trump administration has so far appeared less concerned than its predecessors about India’s close ties with Russia, allegations of Indian involvement in an assassination plot on American soil or accusations of fraud against the billionaire Gautam Adani, a close ally to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

As the country prepares to receive an American vice president for the first time in more than a decade, the mood in New Delhi has been markedly optimistic.

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“On the larger ideological plan, we are closer than we were with the previous administration,” said Harsh Shringla, a former Indian foreign secretary. “There is a fair amount of confidence.”

Vance is set to meet with Modi and other Indian leaders. Some in New Delhi, like Shringla, have noted that Usha Vance, whose parents are from India, is making the effort to come to the country, while Vice President Kamala Harris – who had an Indian mother – never visited.

Discussions are expected to focus on trade liberalization, defense cooperation, civil nuclear agreements and boosting Indian investment in the United States – priorities the Trump administration has stressed in its engagement with New Delhi.

“The vice presidency has become more significant than in the recent past,” Shringla said. “It is critical we establish a separate and close line of engagement with him. He is able to articulate the vision and the point of view of the administration very well.”

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A bygone bear hug

The Biden administration tried to strengthen relations with New Delhi, largely as a counterweight to China. But several incidents complicated the effort.

As NATO leaders were to gather in Europe in July to mark the alliance’s 75th anniversary, senior Biden administration officials, including Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, scrambled to dissuade Modi from visiting Moscow the same week.

The Indians didn’t listen.

Modi’s trip, which included a warm embrace with Russian President Vladimir Putin hours after Russian missiles struck a children’s hospital in Kyiv, was viewed in Washington as an affront. India had already been reluctant to side with Ukraine and was increasingly purchasing Russian oil at discounted prices because of U.S. sanctions.

“It was a slap in the face,” said a former senior Biden administration official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe the sensitive discussion.

But those concerns have little relevance in Washington today.

“India can now inject some warmth into their relationship with Russia,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan, who studies Indian-Russian relations at the Observer Research Foundation.

Some Indians argue that New Delhi’s ties to Moscow help keep the Kremlin at a distance from Beijing.

“The Biden administration did not buy into that argument,” Unnikrishnan said. “Life was becoming difficult. But luckily, because of Trump, there is a certain buy-in to that argument now.”

Sanctions that targeted the flow of technology to Russia under the Biden administration also ensnared some Indian entities.

But President Donald Trump announced in February plans to “pave the way” for India to acquire F-35 stealth fighters. Previous administrations hesitated to share such technology, citing the risk that it could be exposed to adversaries. India already uses Russian-made S-400 missile systems.

The breathing room could allow India to continue some long-standing collaborations with Russia, including on civilian nuclear energy. “It is better to have a bird in hand than a pie in the sky,” Unnikrishnan said.

But some warn that inattention to India’s Russia ties could have consequences. “We invariably lose an opportunity to bring India closer into the fold of like-minded countries,” said Siddharth Iyer, a former Defense Department director for South Asia policy and special adviser to Harris for Indo-Pacific affairs in the Biden administration.

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From espionage charges to economics

In 2023, the Justice Department charged an Indian government official with orchestrating a murder-for-hire plot on American soil against a U.S. citizen and Sikh man. The plot was foiled, but the incident became the most serious test of relations between the Biden and Modi administrations.

“We should assume the public attention around that caused some hard thinking in their system,” Iyer said.

In a sign of the lingering sensitivity, Indian national security adviser Ajit Doval, who frequently travels with Modi, was absent from the prime minister’s visit with Biden in Washington in September. In a civil case, the Sikh man has accused Doval directly.

The Washington Post reported last April that U.S. spy agencies tentatively assessed that Doval was probably aware of the attempted murder, but they had found no proof.

After Trump’s election, Doval joined Modi on his February visit to Washington. Attempts to serve him with a legal summons in the civil case on that trip were unsuccessful, court records show.

In another hit to relations under Biden, Adani was indicted in November on charges of fraud and bribery, drawing scrutiny to a tycoon whose financial rise has paralleled Modi’s political ascent.

The charges cast a shadow briefly over U.S.-Indian relations – Adani withdrew a loan request from the U.S. government for a port terminal in Sri Lanka – but it was short-lived. Adani’s firms are now preparing to invest heavily in American infrastructure.

“The issue is not a top priority for this administration and is unlikely to be discussed in any conversations,” said Aparna Pande, a research fellow at the Hudson Institute. “It will not, however, disappear completely as it will stay in a file and may come up, when the administration changes or some incident occurs.”

Once sensitive issues under Trump have also withered away for now. Indians are the third-largest group of undocumented immigrants in the United States, the Pew Research Center estimated for 2022.

The Trump administration’s deportation flights carrying shackled Indian citizens drew some anger in India, but they have not caused significant friction between the administrations. Many of the foreign students whose visas are now being revoked are Indian, but the Modi administration has chosen to remain silent.

Meanwhile, Trump and his allies’ commercial links to the country are steadily growing. Trump Towers has announced at least two new real estate projects. Companies run by top Trump aide Elon Musk, including Tesla and Starlink, are making inroads into sales and government permissions in the country. After a phone call with Modi, Musk announced on Saturday a trip to India later in the year.

Some former Biden officials and analysts stress his administration’s effort to keep frictions from getting in the way of the broader strategic convergence against China. But despite that effort, they acknowledge, Indian officials have displayed greater comfort with Republican administrations.

Now some worry that strategic concerns are being overshadowed by a more transactional relationship.

“The center of gravity in the relationship has moved to trade, which has never really been a strong suit in the U.S.-India relationship,” said Anthony Renzulli, a former director for India at the National Security Council. “You have moved from defense technology to something that is on thinner ice.”

Indian officials appear unfazed. From immigration enforcement to energy purchases, New Delhi has signaled a proactive compliance with the Trump administration’s demands.

“There is no alternative for India’s development project without the United States,” Unnikrishnan said. “And at the highest levels, we determined that if this means there are some unpleasant compromises, they will be made.”

That posture has led to greater confidence. “I know, today, a lot of countries are nervous about the U.S.,” Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar told reporters after Trump defeated Harris in November. “Let’s be honest about it: We are not one of them.”

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