US urges India, Pakistan to de-escalate tensions

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The US urged India and Pakistan to work together to de-escalate tensions and avoid an expected clash, after militants last week killed dozens of people in the Indian-controlled portion of the disputed Himalayan region of Kashmir.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio spoke with top officials from both countries on Wednesday, asking them to “maintain peace and security in South Asia.” He told Pakistan’s prime minister, Shehbaz Sharif, of the need to condemn the attack and re-establish direct communications, according to a statement from the State Department. Rubio also spoke with India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.

Relations between the nuclear-armed nations and longtime adversaries have rapidly deteriorated in the wake of the attack, which India and the US have called an act of terrorism. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government has accused Pakistan of involvement and vowed to punish those responsible. Pakistan has denied any links to the assault and warned of retaliation if India takes military action.

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Jaishankar said in an X post Thursday that he discussed the attack in Kashmir with Rubio on April 30. “Its perpetrators, backers and planners must be brought to justice,” he said.

In a televised address early on Wednesday, Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said his country had “credible intelligence” that India would carry out military action in the next 24 to 36 hours. Hours later at a news conference, Pakistan’s military spokesman, Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, said the country’s response to any Indian aggression will be “befitting and decisive.”

Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, speaking at a joint briefing with Chaudhry, reiterated that Pakistan had “nothing” to do with the attack and demanded an “independent and transparent probe by the neutral investigators.”

“Pakistan will not be the first one to resort to any escalatory move,” Dar added. “In case of any escalatory move by the Indian side, we will respond very strongly,” he added.

On Thursday, Sharif’s advisor on political affairs, Rana Sana Ullah Khan said Pakistan is ready to join a probe by Indian officials into the attack during an interview with Geo News. “A war between two nuclear powers doesn’t end in victory or defeat for either side but on destruction of both nations,” he said.

Modi gave India’s armed forces a free hand to decide on the timing, targets and mode of responding to the assault in a meeting that included Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and National Security Adviser Ajit Doval, the Economic Times reported Tuesday, citing people it didn’t identify. Modi’s office didn’t respond to an email seeking details of the meeting.

Pakistan’s assets took a hit in April, with stocks and dollar bonds set for their worst monthly performance in two years. Dollar bonds have handed investors a loss of nearly 4% in April, while stocks are down almost 3%. The escalating tensions come at a time when the nation’s economy is fragile and dependent on the International Monetary Fund’s funding for support.

At the same time, Indian assets are proving relatively immune for now with stocks and local bonds up in April.

Pakistan’s army on Tuesday shot down an Indian spy drone that breached the so-called Line of Control in Kashmir, a northern region claimed by both countries, according to Pakistan’s state-run television channel. Both sides have shot down small drones in the past as they are often used for surveillance around the border.

On Thursday, India’s army accused Pakistan of firing across the Line of Control for a week, saying its forces responded “proportionately” to what it described as “unprovoked small arms fire.”

The ceasefire agreement signed by the two countries in 2003 was frequently violated until 2021, when they renewed their commitment to uphold the truce. Cross-border firing had largely ceased since then.

India imposed punitive measures in the wake of the April 22 attack, including the downgrading of diplomatic ties and suspending a crucial water-sharing treaty. Pakistan retaliated by expelling Indian diplomats from Islamabad, closing its airspace to Indian-owned and Indian-operated airlines, and suspending the limited trade between the nations.

In a tit-for-tat measure, India closed its airspace for Pakistani airlines and Pakistan-registered aircraft starting Wednesday till May 23.

Military officials from India and Pakistan spoke over a direct telephone line on Tuesday to discuss recent ceasefire violations. This is a regular weekly call and doesn’t necessarily indicate tensions are easing, but it demonstrates that some official communication channels are still functioning.

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Enduring Conflict

Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif this week warned of the threat of war but said it could be averted. He added that China, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states were trying to head off conflict.

Pakistan’s military spokesman Chaudhry said earlier that India hadn’t provided a “shred of evidence” to support its “baseless allegations” linking Islamabad to the Kashmir assault. The two neighbors have long accused each other of sponsoring cross-border terrorism, a major obstacle in normalizing their relations and resolving the Kashmir dispute through dialog.

Since achieving independence from Britain in 1947, India and Pakistan have clashed several times over the disputed territory. The most recent prolonged fighting occurred in 1999, when Pakistani troops infiltrated Kargil, an Indian-controlled district in Kashmir. That lasted for several months until the Pakistani forces withdrew from locations on the Line of Control, the de facto border.

The last time the two sides came close to an all-out war was in 2019, when a suicide bomber killed 40 members of India’s security forces. Jaish-e-Mohammed (Soldiers of Mohammed), a Pakistan-based jihadi group, claimed responsibility, prompting India to respond about two weeks later with its first airstrikes on Pakistani soil since 1971.

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